Same job, different uniform.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

This is more than you asked for, but here you go. . .

I got 13/20 right, but I didn't vote on all of the categories. I could have had a better average. We'll see how I do on the Oscars. Speaking of . . .

Paul G. will still get the Oscar. Now he's been screwed one more time, so the Oscars can really feel generous when they give it to him this year. But the Golden Globes didn't owe him anything. They at least NOMINATED him last year, and no one could beat Jamie Foxx at either awards. Oscars owe him a lot. I really don't think it's time for George Clooney to win an Oscar, at least not for acting. They might give him screenplay or something for "Goodnight and Goodluck."

Giamatti will win because Oscars enjoy making up for past mistakes so much, they gave Renee Zellweger best supporting actress for "Cold Mountain" (didn't give it to her best actress "Chicago" or "Bridget Jones' Diary") and Judi Dench for "Shakespeare in Love" (seriously? Less than 20 min. on screen time, but they didn't give it to her for "Mrs. Brown). Supporting Actor is like they're freebie award each year. They don't have to take it is seriously, so they can take more chances. They're usually totally chicken on best actor/actress. I.e. Jamie Foxx, "Ray"; Julia Roberts for "Erin Brokovich"; Gwyneth Paltrow for "Shakespeare in Love."

They almost always pick popular favorites, because they obviously didn't owe these actors for any previous performances! The recent rare exceptions are Adrian Brody for "The Pianist . I mean, they gave Bing Crosby an Oscar because he helped keep America's spirits high during WWII. Well, I like the sentiment, and I'm Bing's biggest fan. But an Oscar . . . really?

Or if they're not "popular favorites," but have a lot of buzz, and are controversial enough to give the Oscars street cred (why Hillary Swank won for "Million Dollar Baby"), but not so controversial that America figures out that Hollywood is - gasp! - liberal (why Felicity Huffman won't win for "Transamerica"). Oscars think if they give the MOST controversial film best picture, then they can still keep some of the heartland of America.

They nominate Independent movies but rarely give them major awards for the making of the movie, but will give them small awards here and there (i.e. supporting actor/actress and cinematography). They just like how forward-thinking they look by nominating indie films. And giving "Brokeback Mountain" best picture doesn't change anything. It's not even the most controversial movie out this year, which is why it will win.

There have been exceptions to these rules, of course. Like giving Sofia Coppola best original screenplay for "Lost in Translation." Maybe Bill Murray needs to be a supporting role in a movie. . . then he could get an Oscar!

But these aren't final predictions. Some political things have to win. Jon Stewart's hosting. They want the mood to be political. Maybe this could give Clooney's films an edge? But "Paradise Now" will for sure get best foreign film, so that's a good political "freebie" they can give.

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Blogger girlfriday said...

I am in complete agreement. Politics is in the air. Expect a few wins for Syriana and Good Night and Good Luck. Nothing for Clooney.

Plus it is pretty safe to be in your corner, given your odds.

Monday, January 23, 2006


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